Here is a bit of an introduction.
Western style consumer lifestyles
are highly resource
and energy intensive.
This paper examines
the energy intensity
of these consumer
lifestyles and considers
whether such lifestyles could be sustained
in a future
with declining energy
supplies and much higher
energy prices.
The rise of consumer
societies since the industrial
revolution has only been possible
due to the abundant supply
of cheap fossil
fuels – most notably, oil – and the
persistence of consumer societies
depend upon continued
supply, for reasons
that will be explained.
But recently
there has been growing
concern that the world is reaching,
or has already
reached, its peak in oil production, despite
demand for oil still expected
to grow considerably.
Put more directly,
many analysts believe
that demand
for oil is very soon expected to outstrip supply,
with a recent
study by the US military reporting
that, globally, spare productive capacity
could entirely dry up by 2012 and by 2015 demand for oil could outstrip supply
by almost 10 million barrels
per day.
What this means – even allowing
for some uncertainty
in timing and extent – is that the world is soon to face a situation
where economic and geopolitical competition
escalates over access
to increasingly
scarce oil supplies.
One consequence
of this (a consequence
already playing
out) is that oil will get more expensive.
Since oil is the ultimate
foundation of industrial economies,
when it gets more expensive,
all commodities
get more expensive,
and this dynamic
will have pervasive
implications on the globalised
economy and the high consumption
lifestyles that fully depend
on
that economy. This paper reviews the current
energy supply situation
and considers
the fate of consumer
lifestyles in the context of an imminent
stagnation and eventual
decline in oil supplies.
To read the rest of the paper click here.
